Outlook on the United States: April 2023
Lazard's Outlook series provides a forward-looking view, over the short, medium, and/or long term, of asset classes, sectors, regions, or countries from the view of Lazard Asset Management. In this edition, LAM portfolio managers share their outlook for the United States in Q2 2023.
The U.S. financial system may continue to come under stress in the near term. The aftershocks of regional bank failures, a potential debt ceiling crisis, and long-unresolved structural problems in the fixed income market are all top of mind for our equity and debt teams moving into the second quarter of 2023.
- Our equity team believes small and regional banks could continue to struggle in 2023 as inflation remains too high and deposit insurance rules remain ambiguous.
- Higher rates for longer remain our base case, particularly if inflation persists — but we believe regulators have the tools they need to safeguard the financial system against further financial stress.
- The debt ceiling represents one of our greatest concerns for the U.S. and the global economy in 2023. This is a politically contentious issue that we will be watching closely throughout Q2.
- Our debt team continues to wave a red flag over the fixed income market’s structural challenges. The team is also monitoring commercial real estate debt closely in Q2 as a potential source of stress.
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