Our 2026 Global Biopharmaceutical Leaders Study, conducted in June and July, includes perspectives from 400 leaders across many of the largest biopharma companies globally, smaller public and private companies, and prominent investment firms: 359 C-level corporate executives and 41 leading investors.
Central Findings:
1. Optimistic Biotech Equity Market Sentiment, Though Not Without Risks. For the first time in several years, a plurality of respondents believes the biotech public equity market is appropriately valued. This improved sentiment is underscored by increasing optimism that biotech financing will be sustained by public and private markets. Furthermore, robust M&A activity and efficiencies from AI are seen as key opportunities in the near future, while the most significant risks ahead are macroeconomic and political risks, FDA effectiveness, and U.S. drug pricing uncertainty. Uniquely, China is considered a double-edged sword, with executives perceiving it to be both a significant opportunity and risk.
2. U.S. Drug Pricing Policy Expected to Limit Ex-U.S. Launches, While Views Vary on Impact on Drug Prices. The most anticipated consequence of U.S. drug pricing policy over the next three years is pharma pulling back ex-U.S. launches. Leaders also expect biotechnology companies to retain global commercial rights rather than partner them. Overall, expectations on where U.S. drug prices will settle over the next three years are split, with differing views across sub-groups of respondents. U.S.-based biopharma leaders and large pharma leaders tend to predict falling U.S. drug prices, whereas small-cap and mid-cap biopharma leaders and European leaders tend to predict rising U.S. drug prices. The majority of respondents, however, expect European prices to climb, with a plurality expecting increases to outpace inflation. This expectation likely reflects the view that European prices, which have faced sustained price declines in recent years and tightening reimbursement rules, have limited room to fall further and are due to rise.
3. Bolt-On Acquisition and Strategic Alliance/Licensing Activity Expected to Increase, Although Rising Valuation Expectations, Competitive Crowding, Pricing and Reimbursement Uncertainty Present Risks. Bolt-on acquisitions are broadly expected to increase, particularly by mid-cap pharma leaders. Strategic alliances and licensing transactions are also widely expected to increase. On the other hand, large-cap consolidation is generally expected to remain at the same low level, particularly by investors, although almost 30% of large-cap pharma leaders expect increases. Across all deal types, respondents identify valuation mismatches between buyers and sellers and competitive crowding as the top challenges to execution, followed closely by pricing and reimbursement, and FDA uncertainty.
4. Autoimmune, Inflammation and Fibrosis Remains the Top Therapeutic Priority. Technological Priorities Remain Widely Distributed Across Next Gen Antibodies, Precision Small Molecules and Antibody Drug Conjugates, Among Other Technologies. Autoimmune, inflammation and fibrosis and solid tumors remain the clear priorities, especially for large pharma leaders. These are followed by rare diseases, metabolic and neurology. Views of the top disruptive technologies remain widely distributed, reflecting the breadth of exciting biomedical innovation. Next-gen antibodies, including bispecific and multi-specific approaches, remain the leading priority this year, particularly among large pharma leaders and investors. The prioritization of precision small molecules, antibody drug conjugates, and protein degradation all rose, while Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning slipped relative to last year.
5. Influence of China Will Continue to Grow, Driven by A Combination of Increased Speed of Innovation, A Rise in First-in-Class Innovation, More Best-In-Class Innovation and Increased Competition from Chinese Pharma Companies Commercializing Drugs in the West. Biopharmaceutical leaders and investors expect China's pipeline contribution to grow further. The drivers are no longer just cost and speed of innovation and now include a growing conviction that China will deliver both first-in-class and best-in-class medicines. Many are braced for intensifying competition from Chinese companies in Western commercial markets over the next five years.
6. Today, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) Most Significantly Impacts Chemistry Discovery, Although Expectations Are That It Will Shift to Biological Discovery and Clinical Development Over The Next Five Years. Compared with our prior Studies, healthcare leaders’ perception of the biggest impact of AI/ML on biopharma innovation has remained the chemistry discovery process. However, expectations have risen significantly, particularly among large pharma leaders, that its most significant impact will shift to biological discovery and clinical development.
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