Mid-Year Outlook 2024

Ronald Temple, Lazard's Chief Market Strategist, analyzes the forces that stand to impact global markets as the second half of 2024 unfolds.

In his previous outlook, Ronald made several predictions about the state of the global economy through 2024. Entering the second half of the year, he shares an updated analysis of the investment environment, with a focus on monetary policy, inflation, geopolitics, and the potential impact of elections around the world.

Key expectations include:

• US growth and inflation to decelerate, allowing the Fed cut rates in the second half of 2024;
• A razor’s-edge US election with significant economic and market implications;
• China’s housing challenges to persist, but with the cumulative effects of stimulus lifting growth;
• Eurozone disinflation to allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease policy materially in 2024 adding additional momentum to already-accelerating growth;
• Japan’s inflation normalization to persist, leading households to reassess asset allocation; and
• Elevated geopolitical tensions continuing to influence investor sentiment